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Roger Altman: President's desire to fire Powell is among the worst ideas amid other bad ones

CNBC Television β€’ 3:50 minutes β€’ Published 2025-07-16 β€’ YouTube

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πŸ“Ή Video Information:

Title: Roger Altman: President's desire to fire Powell is among the worst ideas amid other bad ones
Channel: CNBC Television
Duration: 03:50
Views: 561

Overview

This video features a discussion on the implications of potential political interference in the U.S. Federal Reserve, specifically the prospect of President Trump firing or attempting to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Former Deputy Treasury Secretary Roger Altman shares his insights on why such a move would be harmful, referencing historical and current global examples of politicized central banks.

Main Topics Covered

  • The rumor and relief regarding President Trump’s statement on not firing Fed Chairman Powell
  • The dangers of undermining central bank independence
  • Historical and international comparisons of independent versus politicized central banks
  • The legal and practical barriers to firing the Fed chair
  • The limited effectiveness of replacing the Fed chair to influence monetary policy

Key Takeaways & Insights

  • Central bank independence is crucial for stable economic performance; politicizing the Fed would likely have negative consequences.
  • Historical and international examples (e.g., Turkey, Argentina, pre- and post-independent Bank of England) show stark differences in outcomes when central banks are politicized.
  • Attempting to fire the Fed chair would likely be unsuccessful, both legally and practically, and would probably be resolved in the courts.
  • Even if a new chair more aligned with presidential interests were installed, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would still need to vote on policy changes, limiting any one individual’s influence.
  • Market participants and policymakers broadly recognize the importance of central bank autonomy.

Actionable Strategies

  • Support and advocate for the independence of central banks to maintain economic stability.
  • Understand the checks and balances in place to prevent executive overreach in monetary policy.
  • When analyzing policy proposals, compare outcomes in countries with independent versus politicized central banks to assess risks.

Specific Details & Examples

  • The discussion references President Trump’s public statements and the subsequent market relief when he said he wouldn’t attempt to fire Powell.
  • Countries like Turkey and Argentina are cited as cautionary tales where political interference in central banking led to poor economic outcomes.
  • The Bank of England’s inflation record is mentioned as an example of improvement after gaining independence.
  • The legal statute only allows removal of the Fed chair β€œfor cause,” which would be difficult to justify based on cost overruns in renovations.

Warnings & Common Mistakes

  • Undermining central bank independence is described as a β€œdreadful idea,” with history showing clear negative outcomes.
  • Attempting to remove the Fed chair without clear cause would likely be a failed effort and could create significant market instability.
  • Relying on a change in leadership to force rapid interest rate cuts is unrealistic, given the collective decision-making process of the FOMC.

Resources & Next Steps

  • Further reading on central bank independence, including academic and policy papers.
  • Historical data and case studies from the Bank of England, Turkey, and Argentina.
  • Legal resources regarding the statutes governing the appointment and removal of Federal Reserve officials.
  • Monitoring ongoing commentary from financial experts and policymakers on the topic.

πŸ“ Transcript (117 entries):

[00:01] forward. >> Right. And maybe that's why ultimately today said he's not planning to do anything. Megan. Thank you. Megan Cassella, let's [00:06] bring in former deputy treasury [00:08] secretary, Evercore founder and [00:09] senior chairman Roger Altman. What do you make of all this? Roger. >> Hi, Sara. How are you? [00:14] >> Well I'm good. I mean, my head spinning a little bit, but I think it's a big breath. I think a big breath, a sigh of relief was felt here when President Trump said, I'm not planning to do that. I'm not doing that. >> You know, whether President Trump really intended to do it in the first place seems to me dubious. But stepping back, [00:35] there are a lot of really bad [00:37] ideas out there. But the president firing the chairman of the fed, or I should say, trying to fire him, because that's not clear to me at all that he could succeed. That's among the worst ideas. And I think it's no surprise to hear you say that a lot of Senate Republicans don't think it's a good idea, or don't think he has the authority to do it, because it's a dreadful idea. And President Trump would would severely regret that if he ever carried it off. Why? [01:07] >> Dreadful idea. What it. >> Would look like. It's a dreadful idea because people know in markets at least, that if you simply compare over years and years, major countries that have independent central banks and what their economic performances have been versus major companies that have politicized central banks, controlled, for example, by their heads of state. The difference is stark. It's stark. [01:36] Once you. Eliminate the independence of your central bank and make the head of the central bank a. A colleague, so to speak, of the president or the head of state, you're headed down. And history is very clear on that. And people in markets know that. [01:58] >> Yeah. You can look at Bank of England as an example for, for sort of pre and post independence. Looking at the inflation record. >> You can look at Turkey, you can look at Argentina. A lot of there are a lot of examples. And [02:10] there's been a lot written on [02:12] this. Yes. And by the way. I want to come back to something I don't think Chairman Powell would accede to a request that he leave. So I think ultimately this would be resolved in the courts. And if the only basis [02:31] for firing him in terms of the [02:33] statute is cause, quote, [02:35] unquote, and the purported cause [02:37] would have to be the cost [02:39] overruns on the renovation, [02:41] that's a very, very thin read, [02:44] proving that Chairman Powell was [02:50] complicit in creating or or [02:52] approving the overruns or words [02:54] to that effect. I don't see it. No. So I think it would be I think it would be a failed effort to oust him. And I think President Trump is too smart to go down that road. He probably [03:06] likes trolling. Chairman Powell, but I don't think he intends to really do this. As he came back and said this afternoon. >> I agree it sounds right to me. Also, it wouldn't be a very effective way to get interest rates down a few hundred basis points, because you still have a committee that has to vote, even if you can put a new chair in there. Roger. [03:28] >> Well, and imagine imagine the [03:29] views of the other members of [03:31] the committee, the Federal Open [03:32] Market Committee, if the [03:33] president replaced Powell with [03:34] someone who obviously is there [03:37] only to do what President Trump [03:38] wants, those views would be [03:40] pretty skeptical. And the ability of the new appointee as chair to work his will in terms of a sharp lowering