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Goldman Sachs CEO expects more IPO activity in the third and fourth quarter

CNBC Television • 1:28 minutes • Published 2025-07-16 • YouTube

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📹 Video Information:

Title: Goldman Sachs CEO expects more IPO activity in the third and fourth quarter
Channel: CNBC Television
Duration: 01:28
Views: 153

Overview

This video discusses recent trends in IPO (Initial Public Offering) activity, broader economic growth expectations for the second half of the year, and the impact of consumer and business confidence on economic performance. The speaker provides insights based on market activity, conversations with CEOs, and firsthand observations of consumer behavior.

Main Topics Covered

  • Recent IPO activity and market performance
  • Backlog and outlook for future IPOs
  • Economic growth projections for the current and upcoming year
  • The influence of policy uncertainty on economic growth
  • Shifts in consumer behavior and confidence
  • The relationship between confidence and economic activity

Key Takeaways & Insights

  • There has been a notable resurgence in IPO activity, with several significant companies (e.g., Chime, Euro, Circle) performing well on secondary markets.
  • There is a strong pent-up demand for IPOs, and more are expected in the third and fourth quarters if the equity market remains robust.
  • Earlier concerns about policy uncertainty had led to muted growth expectations (~1 to 1.5% for the year), but recent observations suggest an acceleration in economic activity.
  • Consumer behavior, after a brief pause, appears to be rebounding, indicating renewed confidence.
  • Business and consumer confidence is measurably higher now compared to previous months, which is expected to translate into more robust economic activity.

Actionable Strategies

  • Monitor IPO markets and secondary trading to gauge investor sentiment and market health.
  • Stay attuned to shifts in consumer and business confidence, as these can be leading indicators of broader economic changes.
  • Engage with industry leaders and stakeholders regularly to gather qualitative insights on market trends.

Specific Details & Examples

  • Companies such as Chime, Euro, and Circle had successful IPOs and strong secondary market performance in the second quarter.
  • An anecdote from a dinner with CEOs highlighted that a consumer-centric business observed a brief lull in April, but consumers quickly returned to active spending.
  • The speaker’s revised outlook is based on direct conversations with CEOs and their observations of business momentum.

Warnings & Common Mistakes

  • Overemphasizing short-term policy uncertainty can lead to underestimating underlying economic momentum.
  • Relying solely on quantitative data without considering qualitative feedback from business leaders can lead to incomplete assessments.

Resources & Next Steps

  • Continue following IPO market developments and equity market trends in the upcoming quarters.
  • Seek out discussions and forums with CEOs and investors to gain real-time insights.
  • Track consumer confidence indices and related economic indicators for early signs of change in economic trajectory.

📝 Transcript (43 entries):

[00:00] picked up in the second quarter. We did a bunch of uh of IPOs that were significant in the second quarter. You know, I call out Chime, uh Euro, Circle, these all traded well, you know, in the secondary market. There's a pretty good pentup backlog of IPO activity and I think you're going to see more of it in the third and fourth quarter, particularly if this equity market sustains. So, what kind of I mean economic growth picture are you looking at for second half and into next year? It it feels to [00:28] me, you know, if we were talking, you [00:29] know, a month and a half ago, I would [00:31] have told you that the policy [00:33] uncertainty had slowed the trajectory of [00:36] growth, but I still kind of expected 1 [00:38] to one and a half% growth this year. As I'm talking to CEOs and listening carefully to what's going on in their businesses, you know, I think we're getting a little bit of an acceleration. And I had a group of CEOs and investors in my apartment for dinner on Monday night. And one that runs a very consumer centric business made the statement that in April he saw consumers kind of pause for a few weeks, but they've kind of been back to the races. Company that does discretionary kind of stuff. Um [01:06] that uh that I think is a pretty good [01:08] window into consumers. So I feel a little bit of a reaceleration. I'm a little bit more constructive on the growth trajectory based on where we are at a moment. And then look, some of this is confidence. I mean, it's hard to say that confidence is not higher on July 15th than it was on May 15th. And if [01:25] confidence is higher, you're going to [01:26] see that in behavior.