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[00:01] can you say about Bitcoin the [00:03] last week? Nuts and inflation accelerating in June, with the latest data showing consumer prices rose 2.7% from a year ago, more than the pace in May. For more, let's bring in Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. Jim, it's been a while. The number today. We're [00:22] still waiting for Godot, though, [00:24] on the real scary tariff [00:26] inflation, aren't we? This was it was just the slightest bit maybe hotter than than expectations. Still not awful. >> Yeah. What we saw some signs of tariffs in there. I mean [00:39] things like, you know, toys and [00:41] apparel and furnishing. They all moved up more. Those are kind of the things you would associate with being imported from China. What offset that were some other service things and used car prices that had a seasonal adjustment down. So within that number you saw the beginnings of some moving up in tariffs. But [01:02] you're right, it wasn't that the [01:04] overall number got pushed. But that might be coming in the months ahead. >> Jim. How much will offsets play into what we're seeing. There's a couple of half full scenarios for inflation. If you [01:18] want to be, you know, try to be [01:20] positive. Hopefully not pollyannaish but shelter costs coming down right. Energy kind of under control. The tariffs we were still not till August. There's some admittedly but not the worst case scenario hasn't been hit yet. Is there any way [01:36] that inflation stays off the [01:39] radar in terms of a real problem [01:42] for another month or not? >> Oh, I mean, sure, if you get those offsets, but I think that when you come to prices going up, I mean, we're talking about goods prices. Now that you're going to import, most likely they're going to continue to go higher. And when you get over to the Fed's favorite measure, the personal consumption expenditures or PCE, the things like you mentioned, like energy and like housing has lower weightings so they won't offset as much. And as a matter of fact, a lot of people on Wall Street are already saying that you could see in the PC number at the end of the month because it uses the same, you know, survey that CPI uses a 3/10 or 4/10 rise in that number. Now [02:21] there's going to be more data [02:24] coming out tomorrow with PPI [02:25] that goes into that. So we'll have to see what the final numbers are. So you could see sticky inflation. Be clear. We're not talking about you know huge inflation here. But in a [02:33] world of 3% that's enough to get [02:35] the fed not to move rates. That's enough to keep the funds rate of four. >> Is any of this just last mile inflation from the last bout that we had that very troublesome 40 year high. Or is this is that gone. Was that was that totally dissipated? [02:54] >> I think it has. I mean, you know, that was more of a supply chain shock and that that has faded away in the picture right now. And I think what we're seeing is we're settling out on a core inflation number around 3%, and on a headline inflation number around two and a half to three. And that will vary with whatever energy prices do. But those numbers you got to keep in mind pre pre Covid they were 1.5%. So we're at a much higher [03:19] inflation level. >> That everyone's a hawk anymore I mean you see a lot of you know people that have some gravitas that not you know, not just not to say, you know, President Trump doesn't have gravity, but not everyone is just saying we want lower rates because I'm a real estate guy and I always want lower rates. There are some sort of normal people that think the fed should be cutting right now, right? >> That's true. And what they want is they want lower rates. [03:45] But I'll remind you, last year [03:47] the fed cut rates 100 basis [03:49] points in September, November [03:50] and December, the ten year yield [03:53] started at 3.6% and ended at 4.8. It went straight up because when the fed moves and the market doesn't think it's the right idea, it rejects it and you see higher rates. The risk you have is if we get what President Trump wants, a 300 basis point cut. If the market [04:08] thinks, look, the economy is [04:09] okay, we don't need extra [04:12] stimulus and you're just going [04:13] to come up and just inject [04:15] steroids into this thing, then [04:16] you're going to wind up [04:18] potentially producing inflation, [04:18] and you'll wind